Should we worry about the BP oil spill at all?

[tropez]

I mean, I've heard it's still heading towards the US, but do the currents pretty much keep Cancun safe?

[gunner]

Our government does not seen to give a damn about it except to have their stupid hearings. BP can't figure out how to stop it. Buy all the fish you can and freeze it because fish as we know it will soon be gone. The tar balls just landed on the beaches of Key West. To answer your question, what do you think?

[2batdesire]

I'm worried about the possibility of the oil spill affecting the coast of Mexico also -

Its spreading very quickly -

http://www.nola.com/news/gulf-oil-spill/index.ssf/2010/05/gulf_of_mexico_oil_spill_anima.html

[mfay]

From everything I'm reading, the oil spill really isn't any threat to the Yucatan coast any time in the near future.
Mexican government officials are saying that "if" the leak would continue at the current rate well into the fall then the area could "possibly" be affected. The loop current and gulf stream will have the effect of pushing the oil up and around Florida in the near future. Of course if the leak isn't capped by fall................
Then of course there are hurricanes to worry about. There has been almost no research on what effect oil spills have on hurricane formation- or on what effect a hurricane would have on the slick itself. Some think the slick might help inhibit hurricane formation but thats just a theory. Others think that a hurricane might help dispurse and breakup the slick making it less dangerous to any one area but of course spreading some danger to more areas. Nobody knows.
For the next few months though, it doesn't seem reasonable to reconsider a vacation to the Cancun area because of concerns about the oil spill.

[happycuple]

Here are a couple of maps of the currents in the Gulf.

The Loop Current : http://oceancurrents.rsmas.miami.edu/atlantic/loop-current.html

and the Yucatan Current : http://oceancurrents.rsmas.miami.edu/caribbean/yucatan.html

One feeds the other for the most part. Looking at the maps there doesn't seem to be a lot to worry about from a "current" perspective given that all of the arrows pretty much point away from Cancun (from the current spill perspective) but one line from the Yucatan Current info did raise an eyebrow ;

"Ochoa et al. (2001) were the first to report a mean southerly flow on the eastern side of the Yucatan Channel between 500 and 1500 m depth. They speculated that the 2 Sv of water it transports are the recirculation of waters of the same depth that enter the Gulf of Mexico as the Loop Current. The water that cannot flow out of the gulf through the Florida Straits apparently returns to the Caribbean Sea in this fashion."

This to me says there is obviously some chance of spillage (of water) back into the Caribbean sea although on the Cuba side as opposed to the Mexican (Cancun) side . . .

[tahoeroby]

The Tar Balls that hit the Keys was not from the oil rig leak. They tested them and they were not a match.