DRM: 7/8/20-7/15/20 & Covid-19

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Re: DRM: 7/8/20-7/15/20 & Covid-19

Postby racingsplit » Fri Aug 21, 2020 7:22 am

The CDC estimates between 12,000-61,000 US flu deaths/year have occurred during the last 10 flu seasons. (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html)

The US experienced its first 100 COVID-19 deaths on Mar. 17, 2020. Currently, the US is up to 173,000 deaths in the 5 month period since the first 100 deaths. (https://coronavirus.jhu.edu)

Extrapolate that rate to a one year basis, and COVID-19 would have 415,000 US deaths in one year. At least in the US, the evidence shows that COVID-19 will likely result in 10 times the number of average seasonal flu deaths (415,000/36,500 = 11). It would be very difficult to argue that COVID-19 is no more deadly than the flu.[/quote]
Except that your numbers are generalized and come with no cohorts and age breakdowns. So the scare here is, everyone is susceptible. And frankly that’s not true.
https://www.franklintempleton.com/inves ... ience.html
Six months into this pandemic, Americans still dramatically misunderstand the risk of dying from COVID-19:

On average, Americans believe that people aged 55 and older account for just over half of total COVID-19 deaths; the actual figure is 92%.

Americans believe that people aged 44 and younger account for about 30% of total deaths; the actual figure is 2.7%.

Americans overestimate the risk of death from COVID-19 for people aged 24 and younger
by a factor of 50; and they think the risk for people aged 65 and older is half of what it actually is (40% vs 80%).

Covid Virus deaths are discriminatory to the older age bracket with CoMorbidities.
Image

It’s not about just taking it seriously, its about understanding what it is. It’s not Ebola. It’s not Marburg. Were it so, we wouldn’t be having this conversation. And regarding the 747’s crashing, were they all being driven by 80 yr olds with CHF and COPD? That’s the only valid analogy using 747’s crashing into the ground.[/quote]

My comment was in response to the poster that asked how many 747's crash each day with people who have the flu, implying that the death burden of the flu was equal to or greater than that for COVID-19. The evidence shows that is simply not the case. In fact, the evidence shows the COVID burden is closer to 10 times that of the flu.

Reread my comment. I never said or implied that every age group had an equal change of death. I just quoted total numbers. I think most people understand that diseases like the flu and COVID-19 are highly skewed towards older populations and those with existing health conditions, with the flu being no different than COVID-19. Take the 2017-2018 US flu season, 94% of the deaths were for people 50 years or older.

As for the 747 crash analogy, perhaps it's not a perfect one. However, there is no denying that COVID-19 has been a major health crisis and has been in the top 3 leading causing of deaths in the US, along with cancer and heart disease.
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Re: DRM: 7/8/20-7/15/20 & Covid-19

Postby WellyFla2020 » Fri Aug 21, 2020 7:32 am

Racing,

It wasn’t that I was accusing you, but the information used has that implication because there is no epidemiological breakout by age. So its the 3rd leading cause of death.
Among what population is the hardest hit?

And no most people don’t separate out the numbers because they really never put thought into it such as is discussed here. You hear a comment on the news and go wow, that’s scary.

But there’s an irony here. People are wearing masks and still getting infected. People are wiping down surfaces....and still getting infected.

This isn’t the virus that’s going to kill everyone. Herd immunity is about to be reached. At 25%...we’re there.
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Re: DRM: 7/8/20-7/15/20 & Covid-19

Postby kjc » Fri Aug 21, 2020 8:39 am

Great apology. Only problem. During the regular flu people weren’t quarantined and wearing masks. Huge difference
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Re: DRM: 7/8/20-7/15/20 & Covid-19

Postby Burtitus » Sat Aug 22, 2020 9:42 am

jds wrote:Thanks for the Chart. I'd heard some of those numbers but not the entire list. It shows that schools should open and most of the media should generally be fired.
I still say if you're that worried then stay home. We don't need you dampening the vibe.

Well said. I agree, and I would like to add some observations:

1. COVID-19 is highly contagious. Within weeks it spreads around the world traveling thousands of miles. Or maybe it appeared in some areas like a weed or mold without planting it. Measures to contain it and stop spreading have proved to be ineffective. After months of its presence it should become obvious that everybody has been already exposed to it. It is more contagious a than regular flu or cold, and is there any adult person who never had a flu or cold?
2. COVID-19 can be deadly. Cars can be deadly too, but despite of their increased use, deaths caused by them are on the fall, as people are learning how to drive safely and how to build safer cars. You can survive a danger when you learn how to live with it. Immune system needs to learn how to cope with each mutant of any virus.
3. COVID-19 is evolving. People who recovered are getting sick again. However, mortality rate (the ratio of deaths to recoveries in ending active cases) was much higher at early stage of the pandemic than it is now. Most deadly forms of viruses are being naturally eliminated by dying together with hosts that they killed.

Firing media is easy: just stop paying attention to them. Opening schools is more difficult, because people have to realize that this is right thing to do.
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Re: DRM: 7/8/20-7/15/20 & Covid-19

Postby WellyFla2020 » Sat Aug 22, 2020 10:28 am

What I find amusing is the dehumanizing orders from politico’s thinking this is ok to do to people, but we’re all compliant and just do as “the rules” dictate, so here we are.
Dr Sherri Tenpenny @BusyDrT wrote:Gov Janet Mills says - servers must now wear face shields upside down so that their breath is directed up, not down. Yes she wants you to wear a dog cone... peak insanity. I wish this was a joke.. its real
Smiling face with open mouth and tightly-closed eyes
#facecovering #faceshield

Try that one on for size.
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Re: DRM: 7/8/20-7/15/20 & Covid-19

Postby Spongeworthy » Sun Aug 23, 2020 4:59 am

WellyFla2020 wrote:What I find amusing is the dehumanizing orders from politico’s thinking this is ok to do to people, but we’re all compliant and just do as “the rules” dictate, so here we are.
Dr Sherri Tenpenny @BusyDrT wrote:Gov Janet Mills says - servers must now wear face shields upside down so that their breath is directed up, not down. Yes she wants you to wear a dog cone... peak insanity. I wish this was a joke.. its real
Smiling face with open mouth and tightly-closed eyes
#facecovering #faceshield

Try that one on for size.


This is disinformation. I live in Maine (Gov. Mills' state). No such thing is going on here.
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Re: DRM: 7/8/20-7/15/20 & Covid-19

Postby Qaz12129 » Sun Aug 23, 2020 8:20 am

Actually seems like some of both - as per Maine Public Radio
"For example, front-of-house staff in restaurants who choose to wear face shields must now wear them upside down so that they are attached at the collar instead of the forehead, so that their breath is directed up, not down."

See underlined - seems like no one HAS to wear a face shield.
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Re: DRM: 7/8/20-7/15/20 & Covid-19

Postby Spongeworthy » Sun Aug 23, 2020 10:29 am

Qaz12129 wrote:Actually seems like some of both - as per Maine Public Radio
"For example, front-of-house staff in restaurants who choose to wear face shields must now wear them upside down so that they are attached at the collar instead of the forehead, so that their breath is directed up, not down."

See underlined - seems like no one HAS to wear a face shield.

Some staff prefer a face shield to a face mask. There are two basic face shield designs, one attaching to the forehead and the other to the collar. I didn't know there were "flippable" designs. I assume the reason for the collar design is that wait staff would be standing next to a table, taking the order from customers who are seated, so a shield design that directs the waiter's breath downward would not be so good. This is a PPE item for humans, most definitely not a doggie cone!
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